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The UK bakery, coffee shop and sandwich markets are set to surpass pre-pandemic levels this year, according to Lumina Intelligence.

The latest figures from the market analyst’s Operator Data Index suggest the UK bakery and sandwich market will grow by 12.9% in 2022. Branded bakery-led venues are expected to see robust turnover growth during the year, with a 9.5% rise taking the market value to £1.7bn. This is underpinned by a strong performance from market leader Greggs.

Lumina also predicts the independent bakery segment will achieve the bulk of its recovery from the pandemic this year, growing 18.4% to £1.4bn.

The coffee shop/café market is predicted to grow 14.4% to £4.6bn in 2022 and reach 11,132 outlets. Branded coffee shop, cafés and dessert parlours are expected to see robust growth in 2022, rising 9.5% to £3bn. This is underpinned by leading coffee operators announcing ambitious expansion plans. Operators are also tapping into pandemic legacies for more car use, targeting drive-thru openings in community and travel hubs.

Independent coffee shops and cafés are expected to see growth of 25.3% in 2022, taking the value of the segment to £1.6bn.

Meanwhile, branded sandwich retailers, led by market leader Subway, are expected to see 8.1% value growth in 2022, with operators recovering as city centre footfall picks up, as well as seeing growth in other formats including travel hub locations, forecourts and delivery. Independent sandwich retailers are expected to see even more growth, with the value of the market predicted to rise 18.5% to £800m.

Costa was recently revealed to boast the number one spot in the top 75 out-of-home bakery operators in the Bakery Market Report, published by British Baker, and Lumina’s data also puts the brand in first place for turnover, growing 9.2% year-on-year, with Greggs in second place with growth of 9.6%. Gail’s leads in terms of turnover growth among the top-ten largest operators by turnover, with its figure rising by 31.4%.

Across the total market from a turnover perspective, Tim Hortons is set to be the fastest growing in 2022, with an expected rise of 57.1%.

“Despite significant challenges, lower ticket solutions and channels remained well insulated from the catastrophic impact of the pandemic,” said Katherine Prowse, senior insight manager at Lumina Intelligence. “This is evident in the swift recovery made by coffee and sandwich shop operators.

“Furthermore, as the cost of living increases, these lower ticket solutions are set to become more attractive to consumers who are keeping a closer eye on outgoings. This, alongside major operators targeting travel hubs and innovating into drive-thru will result in strong growth for the market in 2022,” Prowse added.

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